The Hill Chart

Software work isn't a flat line. It's a hill.

The first half of any project is the uphill phase — the phase of uncertainty. You're still figuring out the data model, the edge cases, the UI flow. You don't know what you don't know yet. A project that's "50% done" might still be at the bottom of this climb, which means it's nowhere near finished. In this phase, an estimate is a lie. You can't say when you'll be done because you're still discovering the problem.

The second half is the downhill phase. The uncertainty is gone. You've reached the top and can see the destination clearly. The remaining work is execution — and execution can be scheduled. This is when estimates become reliable, when you can set expectations with confidence and make commitments that will actually hold.

The hard part is recognizing when you're stuck uphill with time running out. The instinct is to ask for more time. The better move is to cut scope — aggressively, until the solution is simple enough to finish in the time available. Every project accumulates nice-to-haves during the uphill phase as you learn more about the problem than you had when you scoped it. Cutting scope is the discipline of protecting the must-haves by letting everything else go.

The hill tells you when to start cutting. More time won't get you over it. A simpler solution will.